Stop guessing.
Start modeling.
We build the interactive tools, raw data tables, and deep mechanical guides that the sharp money uses. No fluff. No clickbait. Just math.
Explore Tools Get the BriefingThe Narrative is Lying to You
Sports media is built on emotion. They sell storylines, debate shows, and gut feelings because it generates engagement. But games aren't won on narratives. They are won on efficiency, expected value, and mechanical optimization.
We strip away the noise. We analyze the geometry of an NBA half-court set. We calculate the Expected Points Added (EPA) of a 4th down decision. We track exit velocities and launch angles. If it can't be quantified, we don't care.
Common Fan Mistakes
- Judging shooters by FG% instead of True Shooting Percentage.
- Valuing volume running backs over passing efficiency (EPA).
- Ignoring the vig when calculating Implied Probability from odds.
- Valuing pitcher Wins over FIP or SIERA.
Fig 1. Spatial distribution and Expected Points per Shot (PPS).
The Mathematics of the Modern NBA
The game changed when front offices realized that 3 > 2 at a higher efficiency clip than mid-range jumpers. True Shooting Percentage (TS%) is the bedrock metric for evaluating scoring efficiency because it accounts for 2-pointers, 3-pointers, and free throws in a single, elegant formula.
We built a calculator to instantly determine a player's TS% from raw box score data. Don't trust the broadcast graphic. Run the numbers yourself.
Use TS% CalculatorBaseline Metrics
Before you can analyze an outlier, you must understand the baseline. Here are the league-average efficiency metrics you need to memorize.
The Toolset
Calculators and interactive models built with vanilla JS. Fully private. Runs in your browser.
Implied Probability
Convert American odds to implied probability and remove the sportsbook's vig to find the true breakeven percentage.
Open ToolNBA True Shooting
Input PTS, FGA, and FTA to calculate a player's exact True Shooting Percentage compared to the league average.
Open ToolNFL Draft Value Chart
The Jimmy Johnson chart is dead. Use the modern Fitzgerald-Spielberger curve to evaluate draft day trades.
Open ToolVig Calculator
Calculate the exact theoretical hold (juice) a sportsbook is taking on a specific market.
Open ToolKelly Criterion
Optimize your bankroll management based on your perceived edge. Math over emotion.
Open ToolBaseball wOBA Calc
Calculate Weighted On-Base Average to properly value every offensive event.
Open ToolStop Punting on 4th and 2
The math on 4th down decision making is settled, yet NFL coaches routinely surrender expected value (EV) to avoid criticism. We break down the Expected Points (EP) model, which assigns a point value to every field position, down, and distance.
| Field Pos | Down | Distance | Expected Points (EP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Own 25 | 1st | 10 | +0.60 |
| Opp 40 | 1st | 10 | +2.80 |
| Opp 10 | 1st | Goal | +5.10 |
| Own 10 | 3rd | 10 | -1.20 |
Source: Baseline EP model (Approximate values for illustrative purposes).
Read the EPA Guide
Why Passing is King
The average dropback yields a positive EPA. The average rush yields a negative EPA. Teams should pass early and often on 1st down to maximize EV.
NBA Resources
NFL Resources
Core Principles (FAQ)
Why do you ignore traditional stats?
Because they lack context. Batting Average treats a single like a home run. Pitcher Wins depend heavily on run support. We prefer metrics that isolate player skill and measure actual value created.
Are these tools free?
Yes. The math belongs to everyone. Our calculators run locally in your browser via JavaScript, ensuring your inputs remain private and the tools load instantly.
Why the brutalist design?
We prioritize data density and loading speed over aesthetics. No loading spinners, no bloated frameworks, just raw information.
How do I calculate Vig?
Convert odds to implied probabilities, sum them up, and subtract 1. Or, just use our Vig Calculator.