EPA/Play Explained
Expected Points Added (EPA) is the foundation of modern NFL analytics.
Not all yards are created equal. A 5-yard gain on 3rd and 4 is infinitely more valuable than a 5-yard gain on 3rd and 10, yet traditional stats treat them identically. EPA solves this by assigning an Expected Points (EP) value to every situation based on historical data.
EPA = EP(After Play) - EP(Before Play)
Example
1st and 10 at your own 25. EP = 0.60. You pass for 30 yards. New EP at opp 45 = 2.40. The EPA for that play is +1.80.